Last week I predicted that it was Sarkozy’s turn to deliver yet another mealy-mouthed statement. Looks as if it’s this afternoon!
The question is CAN he save the French Banks whilst convincing an increasingly cynical public and sceptical markets that it’s all about saving Greece?
Money Market Funds have been selling French Bank Shares for about a year, during which time they have reduced their holding in French banks by about 50%.
After Sarkozy (or Angela Merkel) tells us that Greece is “doing the right things” or that ” it is making good progress“, it will be interesting to see what the markets make of it all.
The MOST likely outcome of today’s meeting between Sarkozy, Merkel and Greek Premier Papandreou is a statement indicating that Greece needs more time.
The Euro and the Eurozone both need time - another commodity which is fast disappearing.
Today’s summit has an interesting sub-plot. Rating agency Moody’s has just downgraded France’s two major banks. Credit Agricole has been busted down from Aa1 to Aa2 and Société Générale from Aa2 to Aa3.
Once again, this has come as both a surprise and relief to the experts because the downgrades were “not as bad as expected“. It seems that these days, NOTHING is as expected.
For politicians and most economists, these are indeed The Days of Mystery!
The seriousness of not-only the Greek but the entire Eurozone situation is exemplified by the fact that The US treasury secretary, Tim Geithner, will be attending Friday’s meeting of EU finance ministers.
Even the Americans can see that Greece is the No1 domino!
The hard fact is that Greece ought never have been allowed to join the Euro. It was a predictable accident waiting to happen.
As many politicians will attest – especially those who attended boarding school, the “Greek Entry” was always going to be painful.