‘International’ Archives
The Eurocrisis isn’t just Financial.
The Eurozone crisis has managed to morph from a plain old currency crisis to a debt crisis, an economic crisis and now, a full-blown political crisis - although no-one seems to have noticed........ and it's not just the Eurozone: In the United [...]
Boeing has just signed a $15.6 billion order with Ryanair. I wonder if they had to pay extra for the pen?
Greece: The Russians are coming.
There is little doubt that the Eurozone has been so inward-looking over the last few years that the big-picture has eluded it. Two years ago, I wrote about possible Chinese interest in Greece but it would seem that I was wrong. It is the Russians [...]
ECONOMIC CHAOS ?
The piece below is over 2000 words long and I have just completed it for a client . It is about the random nature of an economic system. Have you ever wondered why ALL economic predictions are wrong? Have you noticed that in spite of a proven [...]
GDP excuses?
These are the GDP figures per quarter since Q4 2010, the time from which we can assume that the government's policies "kicked-in". Q4 2010: -o.4% Q1 2011: +0.4% Q2 2011: +0.1% Q3 2011: +0.6% Q4 2011: [...]
World Economy: The lunatics ARE running the Asylum!
Today, I was asked what I thought about this year's European economic outlook. It isn't great! One factor which I have consistently underestimated is the ability of politicians to "wheelbarrow" a tragic set of circumstances from one meeting to [...]
50 Predictions for 2013
Last year's predictions are HERE. Some were right, some were nearly right whilst others were nowhere near! That's because most forecasting is a mixture of extrapolation, conjecture, wishful-thinking and luck..............apart, that is, political [...]
Europe: Read the small print.
European leaders have agreed a timetable during which they will produce (only) the legal framework for a Eurozone Banking Regulator. Critical words? Timetable and Legal Framework. NO BANKING REGULATOR. Implementation will be "during 2013". [...]
Money printing – a simple question.
Today, the Head of Germany's Bundesbank, Jens Weidmann, has asked a very simple but critical question about Quantitative Easing and its cousin, the Unlimited Bond Purchase: "If a central bank can create unlimited money from nothing, how can it [...]
Eurozone Meetings Merrygoround
This week, Angela Merkel meets Herman Van Rompuy, Mario Monti meets Francois Hollande who also meets David Cameron. The new Meeting Season seems to indicate that Eurozone leaders have decided that meeting in plenary will be punctuated by the new [...]
The Eurozone’s Déjà vu Economics
For years, regulators have been trying to control bad banking. Governments have been failing to control bad sovereign fiscal governance. That's the nature of the Eurozone. This flawed approach has only left one solution - at some stage, both the [...]
Merkel Gives No Ground on Demands for Oversight in Debt Crisis
(Bloomberg) -- Chancellor Angela Merkel gave no ground on Germany’s demands for more European control over member states in return for joint burden-sharing as she conceded that the bloc has yet to master the debt crisis. The German leader said [...]
Νύχτα των Κρυστάλλων ?
"Greeks are lazy, Greeks are corrupt, Greeks are dishonest, Greeks refuse to obey the rules......" Are they? Do they? Hearing that certain countries are already thinking about "doing something" about future Greek immigration sent a shiver down my [...]
EU official: Greece needs extra $20 billion
By GABRIELE STEINHAUSER BRUSSELS (AP) — Greece needs about an extra euro15 billion ($20 billion) to get its debt down to manageable levels — and the rest of 17-country eurozone is being asked to help foot the bill. Debt-ridden Greece is close [...]
Eurozoneski?
In the past, I have pointed out that none of the Eurozone summits has ever produced any "action points". Action points should be very much more than vague statements of unspecific intent. Proper action points should contain elements such as amount [...]
Franco-German Munificence!!
In January 2011, French President Nicolas Sarkozy proclaimed that by the end of the year, France was ready to implement a financial transactions tax (FTT) to help poor countries. The German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, also expressed her [...]
50 Predictions for 2012
An economy used to depend on the interactions between consumers, commerce, politics and investors. Nowadays, we have to add banks (which used to be no more than a service industry) as an additional entity. Keynesian economics are all well and good [...]
Euro Christmas Wishes
My best wishes for an environmentally friendly, socially responsible, low stress, non-addictive, gender non-specific celebration of the Winter Solstice holiday, practiced with the most enjoyable traditions of religious persuasion or secular [...]
Greece points the way.
Many have said that the defining photograph of 2011 was taken earlier this year, somewhere in or near Tahrir Square. I disagree. For me it is this image . It represents the normally stoic Greeks shouting "Enough!" and trailblazing in a way [...]
Kim Jong Ill-judged?
Kim Jong Il's death in North Korea will inevitably shift the focus of Western disdain to his son and president "elect", Kim Jong Un. Here in the West, his PR will very soon become as colourfully sneering as that enjoyed by his dead [...]
More European Unforeseen Consequences?
For 3 years, (since the 2008 crisis) banks have been acquiring equity stakes in British companies. That is grinding to a halt. Banks will be cutting losses in order to get their money out - especially from weak companies, resulting in more [...]
World Markets Rally!!!!
A move to boost lending by six central banks including the Bank of England has triggered a rally on world markets. The banks, also featuring the European Central Bank and US Federal Reserve, agreed to lower interest rates on US dollar loans, which [...]
EFSF Accounting Gymnastics.
Last night , Eurozone finance ministers (sort of) agreed a deal to increase the firepower of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF). Unfortunately, this time it really IS a case of too little too late or perhaps, someone didn't get [...]
There may be trouble ahead….
In my predictions for 2011, I suggested riots and civil unrest. Many said that I was being too pessimistic but Italy, Greece , Portugal and the United Kingdom have clearly shown that civil dissidence is on the increase. Tents may be pulled down, [...]
The Band Plays on………and on………
Markets are continuing to gyrate quite wildly and it will not be long before they finally wake up and pluck up the courage to realise that the nth solution to the Sovereign Debt crisis is not going to work any better than the (n-1)th solution or [...]
The principle of keeping the management of a national economy away from politicians and handing it to technocrats is very sound - as has been proved over the last THREE years by the procrastination and ineptitude of Euro politicians. However, [...]
So last week's talk of a French downgrade by Standard and Poor's was just the result of a "glitch"? Hmmmm!? QUOTE: "........ratings on Republic of France remain 'AAA/A-1+' with a stable outlook and this incident is not related to any ratings [...]
The moves by both Greece and Italy towards a Technocratic -style government are both reassuring and frightening. The increased complexity of global economics has really exposed elected politicians as being incapable of making the right decisions, [...]
Mario Monti , so far the most likely successor to Sylvio Berlusconi as Italian Prime Minister has all the credentials to fall into line with Euroland. He was European Commissioner for the Internal Market, Financial Services and Financial [...]
Italian Euro-light?
European Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn has said that Belgium, Cyprus, Hungary, Malta and Poland are not doing enough to cut their deficits. How DO these people know? The good news is that Italy has managed to shift 5 [...]
For a few weeks I have been asking the question "Who will leave the Euro first: Germany or Greece?" That question doesn't look so silly now, does it? A very long time ago, I suggested a Euro and a Euro-lite. Two separate currencies , membership of [...]
Eurozone: Have you noticed how discreet the Portuguese bailout was in May 2011? Their 10 yr bond is now quietly trading at 11.7%. Barroso?
The United States has been doing more-or-less what the Eurozone has been doing for the last few years. Marking time and watching debt grow. Their "Greece" is Jefferson County , Alabama which has filed for bankruptcy court protection. We are [...]
Thank you for all your messages and inquiries about the Twitter suspension of my @spygun account. I have probably been sinbinned for a week but am currently awaiting the results of an appeal which I have filed. Some of you already know that [...]
Apart from Italy's imminent crisis (it's not REALLY a crisis yet!), there is now open talk of a much reduced Eurozone and rumours of France and Germany already being in discussion about a "break-away" or a "two-tier" Europe. France needs Germany [...]
Tomorrow (10th November 2011) will see a continuation of the rapid slide in Bank shares. Not only will European Markets begin to collapse but the Dow Jones will also join in the panic. China is waiting to buy cheap. It's business. The rest, as [...]
The Eurozone is in a blind panic because Italian 10 yr borrowing is going to cost at least 7.5% per annum. That is the point at which Ireland, Portugal and Greece were forced to request a bailout. Italy needs to borrow but at that sort of interest [...]
Greek President Karolos Papoulias has called another meeting of party leaders because they have failed to agree on who will lead the country's interim government. Prime Minister Papandreou and opposition leader Antonis Samaras cannot reach [...]
Weird that the imminent Italian collapse is being treated as a bit of a surprise. Politicians do not appear to acknowledge that they have been sitting back and watching the whole thing unravel. Starting with Ireland. Greece needed help two years [...]
Gaddafi dead? Or Alive?
We don't need any more sanctimoniously hypocritical nonsense about whether or not Gaddafi was "murdered in cold blood" or whatever.... Admittedly, because Gaddafi was not taken alive, the legal profession has missed-out on yet another Lawyer [...]
S.M.A.R.T Barroso.
José Manuel Durão Barroso is a very able, bright and distinguished politician. He is the lawyer-economist who is President of the European Commission. His speech of 12 October 2011 to the European Council was going to tell the world what was [...]
Turkish Delight
It may come as a surprise to many but there is one country not too far away from the collapsing Eurozone which is going to be one of the E7. "E7?" I hear you ask: China, Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, Turkey, India and Russia. In terms of [...]
Greece and the Deutschebond
Hopefully, Europe is NOT relying on yesterday's conference call between Angela Merkel, Nicolas Sarkozy and Greek Prime Minister, George Papandreou. Lets not beat around the bush. The Greek government lied in order to gain entry to the Eurozone. It [...]
Eurobullshit!
I pointed out a few days ago that it seemed as if there was an orchestrated effort by politicians and bankers to put-out weekly or bi-weekly "Statements of Intent" -- purely in order to placate the Markets as well as to postpone the inevitable [...]
Dans la merde or in der Scheiße?
Good to see Italy and Greece on top. I just have a look at the European stock markets and on the surface everything appears to be quite normal. The banks are doing especially well! Today's showing in the markets is the most clear indicator so [...]
The Greek Entry.
Last week I predicted that it was Sarkozy's turn to deliver yet another mealy-mouthed statement. Looks as if it's this afternoon! The question is CAN he save the French Banks whilst convincing an increasingly cynical public and sceptical markets [...]
Casino Economics
After three years, the scales have fallen from our eyes and finally, the light has flooded in. It has been long time coming but suddenly - an Epiphany! The politicians, bankers, economists and even the Central Bank astrologers have absolutely [...]
Bilderberg 2011
Wondering where real decisions are made? This is a list of attendees at this year's Bilderberg Conference. The conference is held annually with about 140 participants. This year the conference was on 11th June at the Suvretta hotel in St. Moritz, [...]
Bend Over, America!
We have all known for some time that the ongoing banking crisis was originally started by some sort of banker-naughtiness and what we have in common with the vast majority of Bank Directors is that we don't really understand WHAT happened. But we [...]
Between Gold & a Hard Place.
2011 will be remembered as the year when the gold price really took off. It will also be remembered as the year of the PIIGS. That's Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, Spain. So what would happen if we combined the two? What would happen if the [...]
Banks? It won’t be long!!
When the big boxes of money arrived in Libya yesterday, I bet that there were several European states who were slavering and wishing that someone would send them a box too! Especially Greece. Plus other states who don't really want to admit [...]
Syria and Hilary.
The reason NATO is showing no interest in direct assistance to Syrian rebels is because they have requested NO foreign interference. They've seen the results in Afghanistan, Iraq, Croydon and now Libya. They are obviously very happy to trash [...]
Go for Gold!
Eighteen months ago, I predicted that during 2011, gold would hit $2000 per ounce. So far, it has I topped-out at just over $1900 and then pulled back to about $1750 There was a 10% price drop in three days! That appears to have frightened some [...]
States of the economies.
The next economic and banking collapse is going to make the 2008 crash look like a slight adjustment. Once-powerful Western economies are booking quarterly GDP growths of 1% or less. For the non-mathematicians, that is within a rounding error of [...]
Survival of the Weakest?
Usually when there is any battle between two factions, the stronger of the two wins. It triumphs because there are more of them, they are better organised or have better equipment. This is NOT the case in Libya. Without the NATO intervention, there [...]
Politicians? Self-interest? Surely not!
The world's economic problems will not be solved by politicians. Firstly because they do NOT have the skills to deal with a multi-causal, muti-faceted and highly technical international phenomenon. Secondly, their decision-making is always [...]
The Petulant One
"I condemn you, Gaddafi!!" William Hague briefly came out from behind America's voluminous skirts a couple of days ago to announce that the Libyan embassy was to be cleared of pro Gaddafi officials and that they would be replaced by rebels. Has [...]