‘Europe’ Archives
(Reuters) - Five years after the onset of the global financial crisis, the world economy is in such a chronic condition that the European Central Bank might cut interest rates this week and the Federal Reserve is likely to indicate no let-up in the [...]
Economic Recovery: Fact or Faith?
Whenever man has struggled with solutions to big problems, he has turned to his God, who has consistently said that if man endures deprivations and suffering on this Earth, he will get his just reward in Heaven. The weird thing is that here we are [...]
What’s happened to PROPER Investment Banking?
As recently as 2009, banks' investment fees were higher in Europe than in the United States. Nowadays, Europe is delivering only about a quarter of total investment activity, with the corresponding collapse in fee income. Mergers and Acquisitions [...]
The Eurocrisis isn’t just Financial.
The Eurozone crisis has managed to morph from a plain old currency crisis to a debt crisis, an economic crisis and now, a full-blown political crisis - although no-one seems to have noticed........ and it's not just the Eurozone: In the United [...]
Equity Euphoria. Why?
The Markets are in the wrong place. For about two years, I have been suggesting that market sentiment bears absolutely no relation to what is really happening in the real economy. Yesterday's Markit manufacturing figures clearly show that Europe's [...]
We could go down so fast that you’ll get a nose bleed!
European stock markets slumped and the euro dropped under $1.28 for the first time in four months Wednesday owing to concerns over fallout from the Cyprus bailout and a disappointing bond sale in Italy, analysts said. London's FTSE 100 [...]
CYPRUS: Help me to understand this : Bank Depositors are clobbered in one bank but not the other. Then, cross-border money movement is restricted as are withdrawals from individuals' own accounts. Finally, a large swathe of the population is [...]
Cyprus: A blessing in disguise?
The United States, the Eurozone and even our own administration here in the United Kingdom have shown us that we are fast approaching the time for a major rethink of the Democratic Model. The Global Economy is becoming permanently unstable and [...]
CYPRUS Robbery
For 24 hours, the world has been focused on the Cypriot small savers who are likely to lose a slice of their cash to the god Euro. However, there are others who may lose a lot more. According to Moody's, the Cyprus debt crisis has endangered [...]
Banking Reform – A Lack of Will?
When will groups such as The Parliamentary Commission on Banking Standards wake up and realise that this government has NO real intention of reorganising the banks. The talk has moved from buffers to firewalls, ring-fencing, electrified [...]
Europe’s economic fractures widen in February
By Andy Bruce LONDON | Tue Mar 5, 2013 11:46am GMT (Reuters) - France, Spain and Italy dragged the euro zone into a deeper downturn in February, according to business surveys that showed the chasm between these countries and prosperous Germany [...]
Economic ruin: The Root (Banking) Cause.
Here is some simple high-level analysis which always helps to crystallise issues: The 2008 mortgage-driven banking industry meltdown was directly responsible for the Eurozone debt crisis, political chaos, austerity, recession (in some cases - [...]
Greece: The Russians are coming.
There is little doubt that the Eurozone has been so inward-looking over the last few years that the big-picture has eluded it. Two years ago, I wrote about possible Chinese interest in Greece but it would seem that I was wrong. It is the Russians [...]
The Nature of Modern Democracy
The concept of political power crystalised as a left/right divide is in its death throws. UK Political Parties constantly confirm this by this by the politicians' constant playground squabbles over the political "centre- ground". Beppe Grillo's [...]
The Greek question. It’s all Greek.
The Hellenic Telecommunication Organisation (OTE) is to sell a euro benchmark Bond in order to finance itself and redeem previous bond issues which mature both this year and next. So, what are its chances of successfully issuing the bond in the [...]
GDP excuses?
These are the GDP figures per quarter since Q4 2010, the time from which we can assume that the government's policies "kicked-in". Q4 2010: -o.4% Q1 2011: +0.4% Q2 2011: +0.1% Q3 2011: +0.6% Q4 2011: [...]
World Economy: The lunatics ARE running the Asylum!
Today, I was asked what I thought about this year's European economic outlook. It isn't great! One factor which I have consistently underestimated is the ability of politicians to "wheelbarrow" a tragic set of circumstances from one meeting to [...]
50 Predictions for 2013
Last year's predictions are HERE. Some were right, some were nearly right whilst others were nowhere near! That's because most forecasting is a mixture of extrapolation, conjecture, wishful-thinking and luck..............apart, that is, political [...]
Germany – a non-elective dictatorship?
Today, Mario Draghi, the President of the European Central Bank is in Berlin, explaining himself to the Bundesbank. Last week European leaders agreed a timetable to create a European Banking Union but German Chancellor Angela Merkel refused to [...]
Europe: Read the small print.
European leaders have agreed a timetable during which they will produce (only) the legal framework for a Eurozone Banking Regulator. Critical words? Timetable and Legal Framework. NO BANKING REGULATOR. Implementation will be "during 2013". [...]
Money printing – a simple question.
Today, the Head of Germany's Bundesbank, Jens Weidmann, has asked a very simple but critical question about Quantitative Easing and its cousin, the Unlimited Bond Purchase: "If a central bank can create unlimited money from nothing, how can it [...]
Eurozone: Decisions Decisions
LONDON: Global stocks and the euro dipped yesterday as investors cashed in some of last week's sharp gains ahead of a German ruling on the euro zone's new bailout fund, Dutch elections and potential new stimulus from the US Federal Reserve. The [...]
ECB Mario Draghi’s Statement……….. 6th September 2012
Ladies and gentlemen, the Vice-President and I are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. We will now report on the outcome of today's meeting of the Governing Council, which was also attended by the President of the Eurogroup, Prime [...]
Eurozone Meetings Merrygoround
This week, Angela Merkel meets Herman Van Rompuy, Mario Monti meets Francois Hollande who also meets David Cameron. The new Meeting Season seems to indicate that Eurozone leaders have decided that meeting in plenary will be punctuated by the new [...]
Eurozone – a new religion?
The Eurozone has gradually and imperceptibly acquired all the unsavoury aspects of a religion - and we don't even appear to have noticed! For instance, Greece is having to do PENANCE (austerity) as punishment for its past sins. Others are already [...]
Eurozone headed towards lengthy recession
Roddy Thomson (AFP) from Brussels: The eurozone veered towards a prolonged recession with new growth figures out on Tuesday showing its economy shrinking again and analysts warning of falling output right through 2013. Germany posted [...]
Venizelos’ Oral Plan
Here is a 10-point "plan" for a strategic framework, presented to the Greek Parliament by PASOK leader Evangelos Venizelos. He described his 10-point proposal as a plan for an "integrated national strategy". (I have highlighted certain words in [...]
We are all pleased to hear that French President Hollande has joined in the "We will do whatever it takes" Euro-mantra. Hopefully that includes the mass resignation of all Eurozone leaders.
Germany reports the biggest fall in new business orders since records began, manufacturing in France is at a three-year low with Italy experiencing the fastest rise in unemployment for three years. On the other hand, Ireland's output is beginning [...]
Italian Prime Minister, Mario Monti is on fine form today with yet another observation on the Eurozone crisis: "It is a tunnel but ... some light is appearing at the end of the tunnel. We and the rest of Europe are approaching the end of the [...]
This June saw an additional 123,000 people out of work in the Eurozone. We can all agree that an unemployment rate of 11.2% across 17 countries is only acceptable to the politicians who appear to be continuing to merely observe the numbers [...]
On Thursday 2nd Auguust 2012, in order for the Eurozone to have any sort of mid-term future, the ECB'sMario Draghi has to pull something out of the hat. Because of the political procrastination and everyone else's expectation, this cannot just be a [...]
A "No shit Sherlock?" moment from Italian P.M Mario Monti : "It is vital to not lose a moment in the battle to return the crisis-hit euro zone to stability." He continued: "What's at stake - the stability, the strength of the Eurozone, its [...]
The Eurozone’s Déjà vu Economics
For years, regulators have been trying to control bad banking. Governments have been failing to control bad sovereign fiscal governance. That's the nature of the Eurozone. This flawed approach has only left one solution - at some stage, both the [...]
Growing up hungry in Greece
ATHENS/PATRAS, Greece — Μarcos Efcarpos is only 10 years old, but he already knows what the euro crisis means. He lives with his single mother, an English teacher named Nena, in an apartment in the poor, waterfront neighborhood of [...]
Whatever It Takes (WIT)
Every European politician is now resorting to the "Whatever it takes" mantra. This week they will do whatever it takes to safeguard the sacred cow that is the Eurozone. That pampered sacred cow which feeds and feeds without actually producing much [...]
Euroshite:
This is the way that it's going to work over the next few weeks: The markets, in spite of the fact that they're going up and down like a whore's drawers, should really be DOWN (like a whore's drawers). However, BECAUSE the markets are way too high [...]
Merkel Gives No Ground on Demands for Oversight in Debt Crisis
(Bloomberg) -- Chancellor Angela Merkel gave no ground on Germany’s demands for more European control over member states in return for joint burden-sharing as she conceded that the bloc has yet to master the debt crisis. The German leader said [...]
Νύχτα των Κρυστάλλων ?
"Greeks are lazy, Greeks are corrupt, Greeks are dishonest, Greeks refuse to obey the rules......" Are they? Do they? Hearing that certain countries are already thinking about "doing something" about future Greek immigration sent a shiver down my [...]
Eurozone “plan” – an Oxymoron.
Let's hope that the Eurozone's "plan" for a Greek exit from the Euro is better than their plan for the survival of the Eurozone. Talk of "firewalls" and "rebuilding" balance sheets and other construction-related metaphors are wearing a bit [...]
Greek Texas Hold ‘Em
The Greek Syriza leader has the measure of the Eurozone sheep. You may not agree with his politics but Alexis Tsipras is THE ONE that Eurozone leaders do NOT want to negotiate with. They have been bluffing that they're "ready" for a Greek Euro [...]
German Hypocricy knows no bounds – especially in respect of Greece!
Twice during the 20th Century, Germany left Europe in a mess. Now, in the 21st Century, it is their intransigence rather than their high explosives which may once again create European chaos. Germany had to pay reparations after WW1. However, [...]
Europe’s future is not up to the Bundesbank
George Soros | Financial Times | April 12, 2012 Far from abating, the euro crisis has recently taken a turn for the worse. The European Central Bank relieved an incipient credit crunch through its longer-term refinancing operations. The resulting [...]
Today’s EU letter to Van Rompuy & Barroso
The letter reproduced below is signed by 11 European leaders. It is addressed to Herman van Rompuy and José Manuel Barroso, although the real audience is the entire European Union. As I've pointed out before, in Euroland, there has been a [...]
Greece and the Moneylenders
Today, there appears to be a general sigh of relief in Europe. Stock Markets are climbing , driven by a new banker confidence. Positive noises are beginning to emanate from Eurozone Ministers. They are all looking forward to the approval of the [...]
Greek party leaders seek deal as bankruptcy looms
By NICHOLAS PAPHITIS Associated Press ATHENS, Greece (AP) -- Greek party leaders on Tuesday will seek a long-delayed agreement on harsh cutbacks demanded to avoid looming bankruptcy, amid intense pressure from its bailout creditors to reach a [...]
EU official: Greece needs extra $20 billion
By GABRIELE STEINHAUSER BRUSSELS (AP) — Greece needs about an extra euro15 billion ($20 billion) to get its debt down to manageable levels — and the rest of 17-country eurozone is being asked to help foot the bill. Debt-ridden Greece is close [...]
Eurozoneski?
In the past, I have pointed out that none of the Eurozone summits has ever produced any "action points". Action points should be very much more than vague statements of unspecific intent. Proper action points should contain elements such as amount [...]
German Chancellor Angela Merkel is one of the Euro leaders who appears to be slightly too relaxed about the fact that the Greek government has not yet finalised an agreement with creditors in respect of its Sovereign Debt. Now there is the rumour [...]
Franco-German Munificence!!
In January 2011, French President Nicolas Sarkozy proclaimed that by the end of the year, France was ready to implement a financial transactions tax (FTT) to help poor countries. The German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, also expressed her [...]
50 Predictions for 2012
An economy used to depend on the interactions between consumers, commerce, politics and investors. Nowadays, we have to add banks (which used to be no more than a service industry) as an additional entity. Keynesian economics are all well and good [...]
Euro Christmas Wishes
My best wishes for an environmentally friendly, socially responsible, low stress, non-addictive, gender non-specific celebration of the Winter Solstice holiday, practiced with the most enjoyable traditions of religious persuasion or secular [...]
Greece points the way.
Many have said that the defining photograph of 2011 was taken earlier this year, somewhere in or near Tahrir Square. I disagree. For me it is this image . It represents the normally stoic Greeks shouting "Enough!" and trailblazing in a way [...]
Dreamy British Eurosceptics fantasize about UK leaving the EU – but their arguments are weak
This article is by Keith Nuthall, Editor and Director at International News Services. It is reproduced here with Keith's full permission. CLICK HERE. Britain's recent refusal to sign a new European Union (EU) treaty that would impose tougher [...]
Merkel: All is not well. Referendum?
BERLIN (Reuters) - A leading figure in Germany's Free Democrats resigned unexpectedly on Wednesday amid a brewing battle for control of the beleaguered party that shares power with Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives. Christian Lindner, [...]
More European Unforeseen Consequences?
For 3 years, (since the 2008 crisis) banks have been acquiring equity stakes in British companies. That is grinding to a halt. Banks will be cutting losses in order to get their money out - especially from weak companies, resulting in more [...]
The Merkozy Love-in.
This week sees yet another meeting of Eurozone leaders. On previous form, I would bet that the only outcome will be a series of half-measures and promises which will be primarily designed to reassure fund managers, investors and to placate the [...]
EFSF Accounting Gymnastics.
Last night , Eurozone finance ministers (sort of) agreed a deal to increase the firepower of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF). Unfortunately, this time it really IS a case of too little too late or perhaps, someone didn't get [...]
FTSE 100 to fall below 5000 this week? It will be a great personal shock if if doesn't. Asians have been dumping dodgy European Bonds for a couple of weeks and very soon (as in - any minute now!) Equities will follow. This could have been the [...]
Fund managers are looking for safe homes for investments which are currently languishing in European banks. American banks must be rubbing their hands together - especially as the European banks are also wanting to offload both loans and assets [...]
The Band Plays on………and on………
Markets are continuing to gyrate quite wildly and it will not be long before they finally wake up and pluck up the courage to realise that the nth solution to the Sovereign Debt crisis is not going to work any better than the (n-1)th solution or [...]
The principle of keeping the management of a national economy away from politicians and handing it to technocrats is very sound - as has been proved over the last THREE years by the procrastination and ineptitude of Euro politicians. However, [...]
Here is an amazing bit of technology that you would never see in person, as you would NEVER be alone in the room. It is ALWAYS VERY CROWDED and of course you can't see Michelangelo's artwork close up as you can here. This is especially spectacular [...]
Eurozone ‘faces sovereignty loss’
Eurozone countries will have to swallow "a big loss of national sovereignty" by pooling resources and control over fiscal policy to restore long-term stability to the single currency, Chancellor George Osborne has said. Mr Osborne said that the [...]
Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel says: "Europe is in the middle of its toughest hour since World War 2." .......We didn't start it, love.
Big Italian hopes for new Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti. People are already talking about the "Monti style". He may well be a tough negotiator and be known a "Super Mario". However, what he has to deliver has already been decided by the [...]
This weekend's goings-on in Greece and Italy have bought maybe two or three days of calm. The usual pattern is for another crisis to surface or for another set of tragic trading figures to materialise and once again, it will be back to square one. [...]
The moves by both Greece and Italy towards a Technocratic -style government are both reassuring and frightening. The increased complexity of global economics has really exposed elected politicians as being incapable of making the right decisions, [...]
Mario Monti , so far the most likely successor to Sylvio Berlusconi as Italian Prime Minister has all the credentials to fall into line with Euroland. He was European Commissioner for the Internal Market, Financial Services and Financial [...]
Italian Euro-light?
European Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn has said that Belgium, Cyprus, Hungary, Malta and Poland are not doing enough to cut their deficits. How DO these people know? The good news is that Italy has managed to shift 5 [...]
Thank you for all your messages and inquiries about the Twitter suspension of my @spygun account. I have probably been sinbinned for a week but am currently awaiting the results of an appeal which I have filed. Some of you already know that [...]
October 2011 Eurozone Output
This is what they said: 1. Over the last three years, we have taken unprecedented steps to combat the effects of the world-wide financial crisis, both in the European Union as such and within the euro area. The strategy we have put into place [...]